# Cross-Domain Temporal-Opportunity Discrimination — Phase 1

## Result

This confirmation froze a 72-case bank before calibration, then used the
predeclared calibration-only rule to select 24 high, boundary, and low-score
cases before any 32-seed holdout was evaluated. Both workflows retained access
to the same 11 equal-nominal-drive policies.

### Held-out opportunity classes

- Positive: **11/24**
- Uncertain or null: **6/24**
- Negative: **7/24**

The held-out comparison used the exact temporal and non-temporal programs
selected during calibration, not policies chosen retrospectively on holdout.

### Predictive discrimination

- Pearson score/gain correlation:
  **+0.997**
  (95% interval **[+0.988,
  +0.999]**).
- Spearman correlation:
  **+0.997**
  (95% interval **[+0.976,
  +1.000]**).
- Mean absolute prediction error:
  **0.006254**.
- Sign accuracy on decisive cases:
  **18/18**.
- Qualified-positive AUC:
  **1.0**.

### Strata

| Frozen stratum | Cases | Mean calibration score | Mean held-out gain | Positive / uncertain-null / negative |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Predicted high | 8 | +0.165215 | +0.171529 | 8 / 0 / 0 |
| Predicted boundary | 8 | +0.000676 | +0.000691 | 3 / 4 / 1 |
| Predicted low | 8 | -0.039439 | -0.035040 | 0 / 2 / 6 |

### Full-menu policy selection

- CCT mean regret: **0.000000**.
- Domain-local mean regret: **0.000000**.
- CCT wins / native wins / ties:
  **0 / 0 / 24**.

This is a tertiary comparison and does not determine the predictive result.

### Numerical audit

- Policy comparisons: **48**.
- Prospective-pair sign changes: **0**.
- Workflow sign changes: **0**.
- Maximum absolute score change: **0.000199**.
- Audit: **PASS**.

## Confirmation decision

Predictive discrimination:
**SUPPORTED**.

## Claim boundary

A positive confirmation establishes predictive discrimination only within the two declared standard equations, broad finite parameter banks, equal nominal-drive menu, and tested policies. It does not establish novel physics, hardware advantage, universal optimality, or information-theoretic ProgT.
